Tatty's Racing Tips - Wednesday 23rd November 2011

Good morning everyone.

You may have noticed that most of my discussions are concerned with races on the flat (and all-weather). As much as I love watching National Hunt racing, I generally try to keep my investing opportunities to "on the level" only. My Dad always held the opinion that “these fences and hurdles get in the way of a damn good race”, and when my selection falls or unseats its rider, I can see where he was coming from.

On to today’s fayre, we have a varied selection of racing, with jump meetings at Wetherby, Fontwell Park and over the sea at Cork, along with 2 all-weather flat meetings, at Lingfield Park and early evening under the lights at Kempton Park, making up a fairly busy day. 

The best flat race of the day is the listed Class 1 “Come To Kempton on Boxing Day, Hyde Stakes” at 6.35 With a declared card of 14, containing some quite decent animals, it certainly isn’t easy to pick a winner. I like the look of Derek Shaw’s LOYALTY who, even though is taking a raise in grade, may well be good enough to find the frame. Sir Mark Prescott’s Clinical, going for a 4-timer, looks to be the one to beat however.
RESULT: Was never quite up with it to be honest. Ended in 7th place, about 4-5 lengths back.

Earlier at 5.05, the red hot team of trainer Hans Adielsson and jockey Nicole Nordblad are represented by 4 year old gelding SAND SKIER. Back in distance to a mile and a quarter, this may well be his best opportunity to prevail since his last win back in September 2009. 

Swede Nicole has burst on to the all-weather scene recently and has impressed many of us old race watchers, especially with her superb reading of pace in a race. She is certainly one to keep an eye on for the future, that’s for sure.
RESULT: A blanket finish with SAND SKIER coming 5th only a length or so back after seeming to take a wide route around the bend. Went off as 7/4 favourite and worth keeping in the notebook.

Last of all, one to lay. Over at Lingfield Park (1.05), we have a competitive 6 furlong handicap. TRIPLE CHARM from Jeremy Noseda’s yard, goes up into handicap company for the 1^st time after winning her maiden at Windsor last month. From a stable that is not particularly firing at present, she certainly has the scope for improvement, but I think there will be at least one too good for her today.
RESULT: Whoops! I'll hold my hands up, got it totally wrong - sorry!

TWO TO BACK

•      SAND SKIER Kempton 5.05
•      LOYALTY Kempton 6.35 (each-way)

LAY FOR TODAY

•   TRIPLE CHARM Lingfield 1.05

Tatty's Racing Tips - Tuesday 22nd November 2011

Hello all

First of all one to lay. WHERE’S REILEY (Southwell 12.10) returns to the track after a spring and summer break of 252 days. On his last foray at Southwell, he completed a two-timer and goes up 5lbs in the handicap for his success. Although his stable is currently in decent form, he generally needs the run after a break and the lack of blinkers today is noticeable. I can’t see him winning here, but the current lay odds of 7.8 does not seem conducive to betting. Keep an eye though, if that figure goes in to maybe between 6 and 6.5 then lay him to lose.

RESULT: Very much as I expected, WHERE'S REILEY was ceratinly in need of the run. Drawn on the outside in stall 12, he was in touch until about halfway when he weakened. Went off as a 5/1 second favourite, trading at 6.89 at the off on Betfair.

An hour later at 1.10 NIGHT TRADE makes her debut on Fibresand, after a reasonable spin on the Polytrack at Kempton last Friday when coming in 3^rd. It is noticeable that she dons the cheekpieces again (no headgear on Friday), when it seems questionable to me whether she really needs them (maybe something to do with her hanging left in the final furlong at Kempton though). I just think that if she takes to the softer sand surface (she has run well previously on turf with give underfoot), she could reach the frame, so back either each-way or place only.

RESULT: For whatever reason the headgear was re-applied, it didn't help and NIGHT TRADE always lagged behind and was a rather disappointing selection.

• LAY WHERE'S REILEY - Southwell 12.10 
• E/W or PLACE NIGHT TRADE - Southwell 1.10

Tatty's Racing Tips - Friday 18th November 2011

Yesterday was very good day if, like me, you kept well away from laying Barrie Burn. Both the other’s were well beaten, bringing us a nice little profit.

Today I have a couple that might be worth backing with a small each-way (or place only) investment.

At Kempton Park (3.30), Richard Fahey runs GOLDENVEIL. At prices currently hovering around the 14/1 mark and with little recent form to her credit, you might think that I have finally lost the plot and should be awaiting a visit from those fine upstanding individuals in their white coats. But wait, Racing Post tipster The North, not only tips her, but makes her the nap for the day – surely he has some idea as he does this for a living? 

Recently she has plummeted down the weights and is very much out of form, but certainly possesses the ability and a debut on the all-weather, in a lower class of race than she has been contesting, might just be the change she needs. 

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Up at Haydock Park (12.50) Champion Hurdle 3^rd placed horse from 2007 AFSOUN, runs in a 2 mile, class 3, handicap hurdle. In his prime he wouldn’t have had much trouble in seeing off these, but he hasn’t been in the frame since May 2010, nor won for 3 years and in truth is certainly not the horse he once was. On the plus side however, he is fond of Haydock and is declared for the Coral Hurdle at Ascot tomorrow (though I can’t imagine he’ll run). On the negative side the good ground is not certain to suit. 

If you remember the old adage that form is temporary and class is permanent, surely Afsoun is worth an each-way/place flutter?

Today's Choices (both each-way or place only)

• Afsoun - Haydock 12.50
• Goldenveil - Kempton 3.30

Keep your fingers crossed..........

Tatty's Racing Tips - Thursday 17th November 2011

Well yesterday proved to be a devilishly decent day with Domoly getting beaten, albeit only just, but still earning us the odd penny or 3 (Lightning Sprit being scratched). This tipping to lose lark may just be a winner!

On to today. Jumping at Wincanton, Market Rasen and Thurles - all-weather flat action at Kempton Park is the fare on offer.

BAZART (Hereford 12.55) - trained by Bernard Llewellyn in Caerphilly, Wales, has been running creditably well since dropping in the ratings to the low to mid 70's. On a 3 timer today, but 2 things worry me about the 9 year-old's chances. I think running off a mark of 83 is just that bit too high for him and the anticipated good to soft conditions may not be ideal either. On the plus side however, Llewellyn is renown for being quite shrewd in the placement of his horses and never let it be said that the horse will not be in prime condition. Still worth opposing today though I think.

Another one climbing the weights is Milton Bradley's THE GREY ONE (Hereford 3.30) after some impressive placed efforts at Worcester and Fontwell, followed by a win at Huntingdon. He gets an extra 10lbs lumped on after that victory which should really scupper his chances. 

The 2.50 at Market Rasen on paper looks a fascinating contest. Arguments could be made for and against quite a few of the participants, but the one that interests me in the Jonjo O'Neill trained and AP McCoy ridden BARRIE BURN. The 5 year old ran at Aintree a month ago, pulling up sharply 3 fences out. We must assume that the problem has now been sorted, but is he running again too soon maybe? Possibly worth watching and laying in running if there are any negative signs.

Lays for today:

• BAZART Hereford 12.55
• BARRIE BURN Market Rasen 2.50
• THE GREY ONE Hereford 3.30

Tatty's Racing Tips - Wednesday 16th November 2011

Hello all

Being as my recent tips have proven that I cannot pick a winner for love nor money, I have come up with a couple for today that will be fancied, but I think will be beaten. If you are a player on the exchanges (Betfair, Betdaq etc), these may well be worth laying.

Firstly we go to Hexham for the 3.10 where Ferdy Murphy saddles 2 runners. The more fancied (and most likely race favourite) is DOMOLY. The 8 year old gelding won over course and distance 12 days ago and goes in with an 5lbs extra on his back because of it. In truth he didn’t have a lot to beat that day and watching the race, it seemed he was struggling a furlong or so out. He somehow rallied to win, but I really cannot see him doing it again. This field isn’t the greatest either, but there are 1 or 2 capable of beating him in it. On the plus side however, he is piloted today by Graham Lee as opposed to a claimer.

Over on the all-weather at Lingfield, in the 1.50 Gary Moore’s LIGHTNING SPIRIT lines up against 11 other handicappers in an interesting looking 0-55 contest. She stayed on well to win last time out at Kempton, but this is up a grade and I think she will struggle. I am always dubious when 3 year olds come up against older (more savvy) horses and currently trading at lay odds of 7/2 (Betfair) I think she is well worth taking on.
UPDATE: Connections must have known she was unlikely to win as she has been declared as a non-runner.

TODAYS LAY TIPS

·         LIGHTNING SPIRIT Lingfield Park 1.50 NON RUNNER

·         DOMOLY Hexham 3.10

Tatty's Racing Tips - Monday 14th November 2011

Well Saturday's tips were a complete load of old rubbish, so no accusations that I am misleading anyone please. I make it abundantly clear that the old nags I suggest are to be avoided like the plague and I MEAN IT (by the way, if you missed me yesterday, then you are sadder than I am!)

Plumpton Racecourse from way back when (in 1985) - probably about the last time Tatty picked a decent winner (image by Nick MacNeill)

OK, on to Monday then. Traditionally a pretty cruddy day when it comes to horse racing in the British Isles and today is no exception to this rule. Jumping at Leicester, Plumpton and over the sea at Limerick, washed down with some all-weather flat action at Wolverhampton.

Today's nags to avoid are:

Leicester

• 2.50 First Fandango

Wolverhampton

• 2.10 True Satire
• 4.40 Glenridding

Tatty's Racing Tips - Saturday 12th November 2011

With an 11/2 winner yesterday (Third Half), we just about broke even. Back this lot and you'll be crying all the way to the bank!

Today's no-hopers are as follows:

Uttoxeter

• 2.40 Present To You
• 3.15 Officer In Command

Lingfield Park

• 1.40 Frog Hollow
• 2.15 Hunter's Light
• 3.20 Mia's Boy (each-way)

Cheltenham

• 1.55 Fair Along (each-way)

Wetherby

• 2.55 Vamizi

Wolverhampton

• 7.20 Triple Eight (each-way)
• 9.20 Bravestofthebrave

That's your lot!

Off down the bookies now then...............